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The predictive role of symptoms in COVID-19 diagnostic models: A longitudinal insight
- Olivia Bird, Eva P. Galiza, David Neil Baxter, Marta Boffito, Duncan Browne, Fiona Burns, David R. Chadwick, Rebecca Clark, Catherine A. Cosgrove, James Galloway, Anna L. Goodman, Amardeep Heer, Andrew Higham, Shalini Iyengar, Christopher Jeanes, Philip A. Kalra, Christina Kyriakidou, Judy M. Bradley, Chigomezgo Munthali, Angela M. Minassian, Fiona McGill, Patrick Moore, Imrozia Munsoor, Helen Nicholls, Orod Osanlou, Jonathan Packham, Carol H. Pretswell, Alberto San Francisco Ramos, Dinesh Saralaya, Ray P. Sheridan, Richard Smith, Roy L. Soiza, Pauline A. Swift, Emma C. Thomson, Jeremy Turner, Marianne Elizabeth Viljoen, Paul T. Heath, Irina Chis Ster
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- Journal:
- Epidemiology & Infection / Volume 152 / 2024
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 22 January 2024, e37
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- Article
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- You have access Access
- Open access
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To investigate the symptoms of SARS-CoV-2 infection, their dynamics and their discriminatory power for the disease using longitudinally, prospectively collected information reported at the time of their occurrence. We have analysed data from a large phase 3 clinical UK COVID-19 vaccine trial. The alpha variant was the predominant strain. Participants were assessed for SARS-CoV-2 infection via nasal/throat PCR at recruitment, vaccination appointments, and when symptomatic. Statistical techniques were implemented to infer estimates representative of the UK population, accounting for multiple symptomatic episodes associated with one individual. An optimal diagnostic model for SARS-CoV-2 infection was derived. The 4-month prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 was 2.1%; increasing to 19.4% (16.0%–22.7%) in participants reporting loss of appetite and 31.9% (27.1%–36.8%) in those with anosmia/ageusia. The model identified anosmia and/or ageusia, fever, congestion, and cough to be significantly associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Symptoms’ dynamics were vastly different in the two groups; after a slow start peaking later and lasting longer in PCR+ participants, whilst exhibiting a consistent decline in PCR- participants, with, on average, fewer than 3 days of symptoms reported. Anosmia/ageusia peaked late in confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (day 12), indicating a low discrimination power for early disease diagnosis.
Contributors
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- By Giustino Albanese, Andrew Amaranto, Brandon H. Backlund, Alexander Baxter, Abraham Berger, Mark Bernstein, Marian E. Betz, Omar Bholat, Suzanne Bigelow, Carl Bonnett, Elizabeth Borock, Christopher B. Colwell, Alasdair Conn, Moira Davenport, David Dreitlein, Aaron Eberhardt, Ugo A. Ezenkwele, Diana Felton, Spiros G. Frangos, John E. Frank, Jonathan S. Gates, Lewis Goldfrank, Pinchas Halpern, Jean Hammel, Kristin E. Harkin, Jason S. Haukoos, E. Parker Hays, Aaron Hexdall, James F. Holmes, Debra Houry, Jennifer Isenhour, Andy Jagoda, John L. Kendall, Erica Kreisman, Nancy Kwon, Eric Legome, Matthew R. Levine, Phillip D. Levy, Charles Little, Marion Machado, Heather Mahoney, Vincent J. Markovchick, Nancy Martin, John Marx, Julie Mayglothling, Ron Medzon, Maurizio A. Miglietta, Elizabeth L. Mitchell, Ernest Moore, Maria E. Moreira, Sassan Naderi, Salvatore Pardo, Sajan Patel, David Peak, Christine Preblick, Niels K. Rathlev, Charles Ray, Phillip L. Rice, Carlo L. Rosen, Peter Rosen, Livia Santiago-Rosado, Tamara A. Scerpella, David Schwartz, Fred Severyn, Kaushal Shah, Lee W. Shockley, Mari Siegel, Matthew Simons, Michael Stern, D. Matthew Sullivan, Carrie D. Tibbles, Knox H. Todd, Shawn Ulrich, Neil Waldman, Kurt Whitaker, Stephen J. Wolf, Daniel Zlogar
- Edited by Eric Legome, Lee W. Shockley
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- Book:
- Trauma
- Published online:
- 07 September 2011
- Print publication:
- 16 June 2011, pp ix-xiv
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